Arthur Hayes predicts bitcoin’s collapse in the near future

The former CEO of BitMEX has published a forecast of changes in the value of the flagship cryptocurrency. According to Arthur Hayes, BTC $96,366.82 Bitcoin -1.28% Market capitalization $1.91 trillion VOL. 24 hours $2.82 billion risks a significant drop in value.

In a new forecast on his page on the X platform, Hayes wrote: «I think we will break $ 40,000 and below.» The change in sentiment comes after a long-term bearish forecast of $ 5000 for Ethereum and $ 200 for Solana.

$BTC looks mad heavy. I think we break $ 40k. I went long some 29Mar $ 35k strike puts. I think we dump into the 31Jan US Treasury qtly refunding annc. Is Janet Yellen or Talkin'? pic.twitter.com/lyjqNmldzh

— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) January 22, 2024

«BTC looks insanely heavy,» Hayes wrote. The analyst added that the price of BTC will continue to fall until the US Treasury announces its quarterly refund on January 31.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen may further crash the price of BTC with her bearish statements, but the community is expecting a paradigm shift. In his previous post, Arthur Hayes stated that the SPX and BTC «stopped moving up after the creation of the US BTC exchange-traded fund.» He signals liquidity problems in the markets as traders await key macroeconomic announcements.

Earlier this month, Hayes wrote that the price of the market’s flagship would decline by at least 20−30% in March 2024 from whatever level it reaches at that time. The reason: US financial policy. According to Hayes, BTC will return to growth right after March 20. That is the day when the Federal Reserve will provide a forecast of changes in the key rate, which is currently being prepared by the Federal Open Market Committee.