CryptoQuant names the main price scenarios for bitcoin

After skyrocketing to a record high of over $ 109,000 in the first quarter of 2025, bitcoin BTC $82,581.49 Bitcoin 0.22% Market capitalization $1.64 trillion VOL. 24 hours $0.71 billion experienced a significant drop and remained in a downward trend until mid-March. Only recently has the price recovered above $ 88,000, but the market remains at a point of uncertainty. Analysts at CryptoQuant note that BTC is currently at a crossroads, with two possible paths of development.

The BCMI (Bitcoin Combined Market Index), which combines key on-chain metrics and sentiment indicators, helps to determine the state of the market: MVRV, NUPL, SOPR, and Fear & Greed. The current value of the index is below 0.5, which indicates that there is no overheating. According to analysts, this may mean both the potential for further growth and the likelihood of a deeper correction.

In scenario A, the situation is interpreted as a typical correction within a bullish trend. In this case, current prices can serve as a good entry point before the next stage of growth. In scenario B, the market is already turning into a bearish phase, which could mean the end of the current cycle and a transition to a prolonged decline.

Experts advise keeping a close eye on the 7- and 90-day BCMI moving averages, which can give the first signals of the future direction of the market.

A separate positive signal for the market was the decision of GameStop: its board of directors unanimously approved the purchase of bitcoin for corporate funds. Although corporate investment in cryptocurrencies is not new, in the case of GameStop, it has a symbolic meaning. The brand, known for its «meme» rally in 2021, may once again attract the attention of retail investors and fuel a new wave of speculative demand.

Against this backdrop, QCP Capital sees the potential for bitcoin to tactically outperform other assets in the near term.