The price of the Solana cryptocurrency SOL $139.01 Binance-Peg SOL 3.52% Market capitalization $0.15 billion VOL. 24 hours $0.36 billion may drop to $ 65, according to technical analysts, after a breakout below an important support level. According to cryptocurrency expert Ali Martinez, a drop below $ 125 means a shift in market sentiment and the potential start of a new downward phase for SOL. Against the backdrop of such dynamics, the analyst predicts a retest of the previous support level, which now acts as resistance, and in case of an unsuccessful breakout, the price may continue to fall.
This decline occurred after a long period of trading within a technical analysis pattern — an extended wedge with horizontal support. In such cases, a breakout to the downside often signals a trend change. The potential target is $ 65, which is calculated as the height of the pattern subtracted from the breakout point. This level also coincides with previous SOL accumulation zones, making it technically significant.
Currently, despite the downside warning, some short-term technical indicators are signaling a possible local rebound. The MACD indicator shows a bullish crossover: the MACD line has crossed the signal line from above, and the histogram has moved into the green zone. This may indicate a temporary weakening of seller pressure and an attempt by the market to stabilize.
However, the final confirmation of the direction of movement will depend on whether SOL can gain a foothold above the previous support level ($ 125). If this does not happen, the scenario with a drop to $ 65 will remain in force, especially given the upcoming token unlocks that could add supply to the market.
In addition to technical factors, analysts pay attention to the overall market dynamics, in particular, the change in bitcoin’s dominance. Historically, the decline in BTC’s market share has been accompanied by the growth of altcoins — the so-called «Altseason». If this trend repeats itself, Solana may get a boost, but for now, a cautious and sometimes negative outlook prevails.