Scott Melker: Bitcoin is entering a new market phase

Crypto analysts are reconsidering the sustainability of bitcoin’s four-year cycle, pointing to a possible transition to a new market phase. Scott Melker noted that the asset is currently 1,080 days away from its last deep low, with market peaks historically occurring on days 1,060−1,070, which puts bitcoin in a critical phase. Traditionally, the price peaks 12−18 months after a halving, the last of which occurred in April 2024. If the pattern repeats itself, the peak should occur between April and October 2025.

Melker noted that the current market does not demonstrate the usual «mania phase»: altcoins have not shown significant growth, and investors remain restrained. In his opinion, attempts to «get ahead of the cycle» could change its natural rhythm. After the pressure from early sales disappears, bitcoin may move to a more mature liquidity-driven trend that will last until 2026. The analyst suggested that the market may be in a phase of transition to the era of institutional flows and real use.

A similar position was expressed by Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, who believes that the classic four-year cycle is losing its relevance. According to him, the current bull market can last longer due to loose monetary policy. Hayes believes that historical peaks were not associated with halving, but with periods of credit contraction in dollars and yuan, so the current environment is fundamentally different.

The author of the PlanB stock-to-flow model also questioned the sustainability of the cycle. He rejected the assumption that $ 126,000 is already the top and 2026 is the beginning of a bear market. According to him, three completed cycles are not enough to form a reliable pattern. PlanB suggests that the next high may occur in 2026, 2027, or even 2028.

The analyst focuses on average price levels rather than short-term ups. In his opinion, the market has not yet passed a «fundamental phase transition» that could launch a new large-scale rally or lead to a more stable phase under the influence of institutions. He sees both scenarios as positive for bitcoin.