VanEck: Bitcoin market decline is provoked by miners

Despite a sharp drop in the price of bitcoin BTC $86,398.32 Mezo Wrapped BTC -2.52% Market capitalization $44.83 million VOL. 24 hours $1.2 billion and weak on-chain indicators, analysts at investment firm VanEck are calling for cautious optimism as the market enters a phase of miner surrender. According to historical observations, such a situation often signals an approaching price bottom.

Over the past 30 days, bitcoin’s hashrate — the total computing power of the network — has fallen by 4%, the sharpest drop since April 2024. The main reason is the growing complexity of mining amid a decline in the price of BTC, which means that many miners can no longer cover their costs. For the popular Antminer S19 XP rigs, the profitability threshold is $ 0.077 per kWh, and under current market conditions, some operators are forced to shut down their equipment.

In particular, miners in China’s Xinjiang region have cut about 1.3 GW of capacity. VanEck recalls that in previous periods, when the average 90-day hashrate growth was negative, the probability of a BTC price increase in the next six months was approximately 77%. This shows that miners' capitulation often precedes market recovery.

Against this backdrop, there is an institutional divergence. Corporations are actively «buying on the dip» and have added about 42,000 BTC over the past month, the most since July 2025. At the same time, investors in exchange-traded bitcoin products (ETFs/ETPs) are reducing their positions: their total assets fell by about 1.2%. This means that long-term corporate holders are accumulating, while more speculative market participants are taking profits or exiting positions.

Speculativeness has also decreased: the annualized funding rate for perpetual futures has fallen to 5%, which is below the average of 7.4%. According to VanEck analysts, this balance between miner capitulation, speculative capital outflows, and corporate accumulation of bitcoin may indicate the formation of a new market bottom and a potential recovery in the first half of 2026.