Bitcoin may end the year in the red for the first time since 2022

Bitcoin BTC $86,435.37 Mezo Wrapped BTC -0.58% Market capitalization $45.5 million VOL. 24 hours $1.15 billion may end 2025 in the red for only the fourth time in the cryptocurrency’s history. Since the beginning of the year, the BTC exchange rate has dropped by about 7%, and if the situation does not change, it will be the first negative year since 2022. Previously, the red years for bitcoin were in 2014, 2018, and 2022, the periods of bear markets. However, 2025 is not a classic downturn, so analysts are asking whether something more serious has happened

Analysts point to October 10 as the key event, when the price of BTC fell by 10%, losing more than $ 12,000 in a day — the largest clearance of excessive leverage in the history of the industry. Analyst Max Crypto compared that day to a «Terra Luna moment» when the market looked stable — until it collapsed. Investor George Bodine called October 10 «a turning point from which the market has not yet recovered.»

Analyst Scott Melker noted that the October crash not only brought down prices, but also exposed the market’s structural problems. According to him, liquidity is still extremely limited, and market makers are more cautious than before. Altcoins are showing no signs of recovery, and capital is not flowing between assets — investors are simply withdrawing money from the market.

Nevertheless, other experts are more calm. An analyst at CredibleCrypto believes that the situation is not fatal: «It was a large-scale process of crediting. Open interest has decreased, but this means that the next growth will be more sustainable.»

As of the time of publication, bitcoin was trading below $ 87,000, losing momentum after an unsuccessful attempt to break through the $ 90,000 mark. Experts emphasize that in order to return to stable growth, liquidity, confidence, and investor participation need to be restored, as any price increase will remain fragile without it.