Fidelity Investments: bitcoin may fall to $ 65,000

Analysts warn that Bitcoin is approaching a decisive stage that could determine the future course of the market. According to Jurien Timmer, director of global macroeconomics at Fidelity Investments, the key support level is $ 65,000. If the market enters a classic bearish phase, this level could be critical for maintaining the long-term trend.

During the last bull cycle, Bitcoin’s price clearly followed its long-term power law model. However, according to Timmer, the dynamics now resemble a gradual Internet adoption curve rather than exponential growth. Historically, the deepest falls occurred when the price approached the lower boundary of this model, which often became the point of formation of long-term «days».

«The line of defense for Bitcoin is now $ 65,000, and below that is $ 45,000, where the power law trend line is,» Timmer said. He added that if consolidation occurs during the year, this lower limit could approach $ 65,000 and become a decisive milestone.

The discussion also touched on the question of whether four-year halving cycles are still relevant. Timmer believes that their influence is gradually diminishing, although bear markets will not disappear completely. CEO David Eng agreed, emphasizing that Bitcoin has not entered a mode of constant growth without corrections: «It's a scarce asset in the financial system, not a separate S-curve like the Internet.»

Despite the fact that Bitcoin ended 2025 in the red, Eng is convinced that current models indicate growth potential. «Bitcoin hasn’t stopped — it is accumulating momentum below its long-term curve. History shows that the denouement occurs when the price catches up with the law of growth,» he summarized. If this scenario comes true, the market could see a recovery rally even in the face of uncertainty in 2026.