K33 analysts have identified the local bottom of bitcoin

Bitcoin’s drop BTC $67,651.81 Mezo Wrapped BTC -1.74% Market capitalization $38.64 million VOL. 24 hours $1.4 billion to $ 60,000 could have formed a local bottom: K33 Research analysts have recorded signs of investor capitulation in the spot market, ETF segment, and derivatives at the same time.

Head of Research Vetle Lunde drew attention to market anomalies: funding rates have fallen to the levels of the March 2023 banking crisis, and the skew in the options market has returned to the levels of the bearish 2022. Momentum indicators also point to extreme oversold conditions: amid the selling since January 20, the daily RSI dropped to 15.9, the sixth lowest level since 2015, with lower levels only recorded during the March 2020 and November 2018 crashes.

During the sell-off, the Fear and Greed Index fell to 6 points, the second lowest value in history, which underscores the depth of pessimism as BTC moved toward $ 60,000. According to Lunde’s observations, historically, similar episodes have coincided with cyclical lows, and this supports the assumption that the recent correction may have completed the formation of a local bottom.

Lunde also described the situation as «hyperactive trading»: as of February 6, the two-day spot volume of bitcoin transactions reached $ 32 billion, one of the highest in history. On February 5 and 6, the figures remained in the 95th percentile, and over the past five years, according to the report, such intensity has only happened once — during the FTX crash; the analyst added that such surges often occur during the passage of local extremes and are usually followed by consolidation and retest of lows.

Tensions remain in the derivatives market: on February 6, the annual funding rate for perpetual bitcoin swaps fell to -15.46%, the lowest since March 2023, and the average weekly rate dropped to -3.5%, updating the anti-record of September 2024.

The skew of options, according to Lunde, has shifted to an «extremely protective zone,» and similar values were previously observed only during the Terra collapse, the liquidation of 3AC, and the bankruptcy of FTX; at the same time, on February 5, IBIT’s trading volume exceeded $ 10 billion, but on the same day, the funds received the fifth largest net outflow from the launch, and since February 3, a total of 13,670 BTC have been withdrawn from spot bitcoin ETFs.

K33 expects a long consolidation in the range of $ 60,000-$ 75,000, predicts a decline in trading activity and allows for a support retest, but sees no fundamental reasons for quotes to fall below the local low.