Experts predict a 35% drop in the cryptocurrency market

Bitcoin BTC $68,460.46 Mezo Wrapped BTC 2.61% Market capitalization $37.69 million VOL. 24 hours $1.98 billion holds its ground despite the general deterioration in global markets. On Monday, March 9, the top cryptocurrency traded at $ 67,378, up 1.1% from the previous day and almost unchanged over the week.

Other major cryptocurrencies also showed a slight increase: Ethereum ETH $2,025.70 Bridged Ether (StarkGate) 4.08% Market capitalization $41.35 million VOL. 24 hours $1.01 billion rose by 2.3% to $ 1,981, BNB- by 1.4% to $ 624, Dogecoin DOGE $0.09 Binance-Peg Dogecoin 2.85% Market capitalization $0.23 billion VOL. 24 hours $96.34 million - by 1.8% to $ 0.09, Solana- by 1.8% to $ 83.69 (but remains minus 1.5% for the week), XRP XRP $1.36 XRP 1.47% Market capitalization $83.45 billion VOL. 24 hours $0.17 billion is holding at $ 1.35, a decrease of about 1% for the week.

Meanwhile, traditional markets are showing a sharp decline. S&P 500 futures lost more than 2% in Asian trading, the VIX volatility index rose to its highest since April, the price of oil exceeded $ 100, and the dollar showed its strongest weekly rise in a year.

Strategist Ed Yardeni raised the probability of a US market crash to 35% (previously 20%) and reduced the chances of a «meltdown» to 5%. He noted that the US economy is caught between the risk of inflation and rising unemployment if the oil shock continues.

For Bitcoin, such a situation traditionally means risks: during a «risk-off» investors move away from volatile assets and into the dollar, Treasury bonds, or cash. Despite its reputation as a «safe-haven asset,» cryptocurrencies have repeatedly fallen alongside stocks during the post-2020 crisis.

NYDIG analyst Greg Sipolaro explains that Bitcoin’s movement in parallel with US tech stocks reflects «the shared impact of the macro regime» rather than structural similarities. According to him, only about 25% of Bitcoin’s price fluctuations can be explained by correlation with the stock market, while the remaining 75% depend on other factors.

The overall picture for stocks remains negative: the MSCI global index was down 3.7% over the week, with Asia suffering the most. Hedge funds are increasing their short positions in U.S. ETFs, and the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds rose by six basis points.

The U.S. still looks resilient thanks to energy self-sufficiency, but the 2% drop in S&P 500 futures on Monday suggests that this «protective buffer» is rapidly weakening.