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Bitcoin fell to $ 76,314 on Tuesday—its lowest closing price since the so-called «golden cross,» which had boosted market sentiment a few days earlier. Over the course of the day, the cryptocurrency lost about 2.4%, trading in a range from $ 76,076 to $ 78,242.
The overall sentiment in the markets is one of risk aversion. U.S. stock futures fell on Tuesday morning as Wall Street braces for tomorrow’s Federal Reserve decision on interest rates. Traders are increasingly pricing in a scenario of rate hikes rather than cuts. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq opened lower, the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds approached its highest levels since 2023, and oil prices are rising due to concerns about supplies from the Middle East. In this environment, the cryptocurrency market cannot remain unaffected.
Technical indicators point to a genuine downtrend, not just profit-taking. The Average Directional Index (ADX) is holding at 42.8—well above the 25-point threshold that confirms an established trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at a neutral 50.5, meaning there is neither overbought nor oversold conditions—and thus, the movement could continue in either direction without obvious technical constraints.
The Squeeze Momentum indicator has been signaling market compression for a week now, and the momentum reading stands at -1.17 and continues to fall. Negative and declining momentum during a squeeze typically indicates a seller’s advantage: when the pressure eventually releases, the price is most likely to move downward. Based on Fibonacci levels drawn from the June low of $ 68,858 to the September high of $ 82,281, Bitcoin has already broken through the $ 79,113 level and is testing the zone above the 50% retracement at $ 75,569. A close below this level would open the way to $ 73,986, and a deeper pullback could reach $ 71,731.
The main risk of the day isn’t the charts, but the Senate. At 2:15 p.m. Washington time, a procedural vote is scheduled on the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act—a bill that would establish clear rules for regulating the crypto market in the U.S. At least 60 votes are needed to move the bill forward, and reaching that threshold is highly uncertain.
Prediction markets tracking the bill’s chances of passing in 2026 have plummeted as September approaches, though they have recouped some losses in recent days following new concessions in the negotiations. A failed vote won’t kill the bill outright, but it will delay its consideration until after the midterm elections, leaving the industry subject to the SEC and CFTC’s current, controversial rules—precisely the scenario the market seems to fear.
Two key catalysts are expected within the next 24 hours: the Senate vote—this afternoon—and the Fed’s decision—tomorrow. Both will determine not only where Bitcoin is headed but also the overall sentiment of the crypto market in the coming weeks.