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Mark Yusko, CEO of the American investment firm Morgan Creek Capital, has stated that the fair value of Bitcoin is $ 105,000. He based his calculation on what is known as Metcalfe’s Law.
This law was formulated by internet entrepreneur Robert Metcalfe: the value of a network grows in proportion to the square of the number of its users. In the context of Bitcoin, this means that its true value is determined by the number of active addresses and the volume of transactions on the network. According to Yusco’s calculations, the cryptocurrency is currently trading at a significant discount relative to its fair value, making this the best time to buy.
The investor is convinced that Bitcoin outperforms traditional assets as a means of preserving capital. In his view, long-term investments in stocks are an ineffective strategy: about 85% of companies disappear within 30 years, so the stock market is unable to reliably protect savings. For 5,000 years, gold has fulfilled this role, and now, according to Yusko, Bitcoin stands alongside it.
Bitcoin is currently trading at around $ 76,000—40% below its October all-time high of $ 126,198. However, over the past month, the cryptocurrency has risen 19% in price, and its market capitalization stands at $ 1.6 trillion.
The catalyst for the August rally was an announcement by the U.S. Department of the Treasury regarding plans to double the volume of bond purchases to support liquidity. Investors reacted to this by selling off the dollar and shifting funds into risky assets, particularly cryptocurrencies.
This is not the first time Yusko has publicly predicted the price of the leading cryptocurrency. In January 2024, he cited $ 50,000 as a fair price—at that time, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission approved the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs, which, according to the entrepreneur, was expected to accelerate the asset’s growth.