Analyst believes that bitcoin may fall to 2021 levels

Mike McGlone, senior commodities strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, admits that bitcoin could fall to $ 10,000, the level at which the cryptocurrency traded during the previous major cycle in 2020−2021.

The analyst shared his forecast on the X network, commenting on a statement by Strategy co-founder Сейлор" href="https:>Michael Saylor, who noted that the company is buying bitcoin using capital it cannot afford to lose. McGlone reminded that Strategy was one of the catalysts of the powerful rally in 2020, when the price of BTC was near $ 10,000.

According to the strategist, the potential drop to this level is explained by the fact that bitcoin is increasingly behaving as a risky asset. In particular, its 48-month correlation with the S&P 500 index has reached a record high, while in 2020 it was negative. McGlone does not rule out that the return of the stock market to the levels inherent in the beginning of the previous big cycle may also pull bitcoin down.

The analyst also drew attention to structural changes in the crypto industry. While in 2009 there was only one digital asset, today there are about 28 million cryptocurrencies on CoinMarketCap. The emergence of millions of tokens may blur the narrative of scarcity that previously supported long-term bullish forecasts for BTC.

In addition to the $ 10,000 scenario, McGlone also considered a more moderate correction. In particular, if the S&P 500 pulls back to the five-year moving average near the 5,600 level, this would correspond to about $ 56,000 for bitcoin. However, if the U.S. stock market reaches its long-term peak, the cryptocurrency could return to $ 10,000.

This is not the first tough forecast from McGlone. Earlier, he has already announced a possible correction of bitcoin to $ 50,000, characterizing the asset as overvalued compared to gold.