Analyst names key condition for bitcoin’s growth to $ 200,000

An analyst known as Sykodelic said that in order for bitcoin BTC $71,377.18 Mezo Wrapped BTC 1.16% Market capitalization $42.1 million VOL. 24 hours $1.51 billion to start a large-scale breakout to the $ 200,000 area, it needs to close the weekly candle above $ 74,400. In his opinion, this will confirm the key level of the older timeframe as a rejection and trigger an extended reversal based on the wave plane model. The expert called the upcoming movement «hated» because most of the market does not expect such a scenario, relying on traditional four-year cycles.

Sykodelic believes that the current macro cycle is in a completely different phase, and a potential rally will eliminate a record number of short positions and leave most investors on the sidelines. This, in his opinion, will only increase the aggressiveness of growth when skeptics begin to return, realizing their mistake.

Michael van de Poppe, founder of MN Trading, takes a more reserved stance. He noted that after the February collapse, bitcoin has been constantly forming higher lows, which is a «great sign.» At the same time, he warned that the accumulation of liquidity around these levels could cause a major move. According to his forecast, if the positions are held, bitcoin could rise to $ 77,000−80,000.

Wintermute analysts emphasize that further movement depends on macroeconomic factors. Positive news about the passage of tankers through the Strait of Hormuz or Iran’s willingness to cooperate could push bitcoin to the $ 74,000−76,000 zone. On the other hand, a breakdown in negotiations or continued restrictions on shipping could bring back the oil risk premium, boost inflation expectations, and force the Fed to postpone policy easing. In this case, bitcoin risks testing $ 60,000.

At the time of writing, digital gold is trading at around $ 71,000, having added 0.9% per day. Earlier, SkyBridge managing partner Anthony Scaramucci called bitcoin’s drop from a historic high above $ 126,000 to $ 60,000 a «normal» correction within the cycle.