Analysts predict bitcoin’s fall to $ 64,000

Bitcoin BTC $85,304.90 Mezo Wrapped BTC 0.26% Market capitalization $39.67 million VOL. 24 hours $2.09 billion briefly dropped below $ 83,000 on Monday evening amid low liquidity, concerns over the events in Japan, and fears of possible changes in MSCI’s methodology. On Tuesday morning, during Asian trading, the price recovered to over $ 85,000, but other cryptocurrencies — XRP XRP $2.02 XRP -1.15% Market capitalization $121.62 billion VOL. 24 hours $0.24 billion , Ethereum ETH $2,803.75 Bridged Ether (StarkGate) -1.09% Market capitalization $66.35 million VOL. 24 hours $1.64 billion , Cardano ADA $0.39 Cardano 0.52% Market capitalization $14.23 billion VOL. 24 hours $45.28 million , Solana SOL $127.02 Binance-Peg SOL -0.20% Market capitalization $0.14 billion VOL. 24 hours $0.44 billion and BNB Chain BNB $835.80 BNB 1.34% Market capitalization $115.12 billion VOL. 24 hours $0.19 billion - lost up to 2% of their value.

Farzam Ehsani, CEO of VALR, noted that the price drop below $ 90,000 was the result of a combination of a fragile market structure and weak liquidity conditions typical of the weekend. According to him, due to the shallow depth of the order book, the market could not withstand another macroeconomic stress, which led to a sharp decline in prices.

Additional pressure on the market is created by the expectation of the decision of MSCI, which is considering the possibility of excluding companies with large cryptocurrency assets from global indices. These are companies that collectively hold more than $ 137 billion in digital assets, including Strategy, Marathon, Riot, Metaplanet, and American Bitcoin. This is about 5% of all bitcoins in circulation.

Ehsani explained that the market already takes into account the risk of forced sales by index funds in the event of a rule change. Such changes, he said, automatically trigger portfolio reviews and can lead to significant capital flows. Investors are preparing for short-term imbalances associated with these possible movements.

The weak start to December reinforced the negative dynamics of November, when bitcoin lost 17.5%, one of the largest monthly drops in the last three years. If the price breaks through the level of around $ 80,500, analysts expect a further decline to the $ 64,000 technical zone. Ehsani adds that if the market falls further, large institutional investors may be interested in massive purchases in the $ 60,000-$ 65,000 range. Meanwhile, Solana-focused funds have been showing net inflows of more than $ 600 million for five weeks in a row, and total investments in spot XRP-ETFs have exceeded $ 666 million. Data from CryptoQuant and Glassnode indicate that leverage is gradually leaving the market, although this does not yet compensate for the overall macroeconomic uncertainty.