Arthur Hayes: crypto market will peak in March 2025

Arthur Hayes, the former CEO of BitMEX, predicts that the crypto market will peak in mid-March 2025, followed by a significant correction. He bases his assessment on the analysis of the US dollar liquidity and its impact on financial markets, including cryptocurrencies.

The Federal Reserve’s Reserve Repository (RRP) and the US Treasury’s General Account (TGA) play a key role in this. Hayes notes that the decline in the RRP coincides with the rise in the price of bitcoin BTC $103,591.65 Bitcoin 1.08% Market capitalization $2.05 trillion VOL. 24 hours $3.78 billion , starting in the third quarter of 2022, which indicates an increase in market liquidity. He also expects that the decline in TGA balances, which will occur due to the halt in US debt issuance, will create a temporary liquidity boost that will support the market.

Hayes warns that other macroeconomic factors, such as Chinese and Bank of Japan policies, as well as possible changes in the Trump administration, could affect market conditions. At the same time, he plans to take advantage of the current liquidity by increasing investments in decentralized science (DeSci) projects, which demonstrates his willingness to take high-risk strategies.

CryptoQuant analysts also note that the market is in the late stages of growth, with the possibility of peaking in the first or second quarter of 2025. At the same time, investors are advised to act cautiously, given the potential risks associated with the end of the growth cycle.

Arthur Hayes, in turn, recommends that investors sell assets at the end of the first quarter of 2025 to avoid losses due to a possible market correction.