Arthur Hayes predicts bitcoin’s growth to $ 200,000

Arthur Hayes, the former CEO of BitMEX, said that bitcoin BTC $93,373.59 Bitcoin 3.15% Market capitalization $1.85 trillion VOL. 24 hours $3.97 billion could exceed $ 110,000 and even approach $ 200,000 thanks to a hidden financial mechanism — the purchase of bonds by the US Treasury. In his essay titled «Ski Cut,» he explained how this process creates a new wave of liquidity, which, in his words, will «melt the faces» of traders who do not keep up with the market.

This refers to a program to buy back old, illiquid government bonds («off-the-run bonds»), where the Ministry of Finance issues new bonds and uses the proceeds to buy back old ones. This raises the price of old bonds and allows hedge funds with a relative strategy (RV funds) to make quick profits by selling these bonds and closing short futures positions.

Hayes believes that this scheme allows the US government to finance the budget deficit without the participation of Congress. According to him, the current Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is likely to deliberately step up the buybacks to compensate for the shortfall in revenues caused by lower revenues from taxes, tariffs and business activity. As of March, the US budget deficit in fiscal year 2025 increased by 22% compared to the same period in 2024.

In his theory, Hayes also mentions previous examples: in the third quarter of 2022, during the FTX crisis and the Fed’s rate hike, former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen used a similar liquidity strategy that added about $ 2.5 trillion to the system and contributed to the rapid growth of bitcoin.

The analyst predicts that in May 2025, everything will fall into place: the publication of the Ministry of Finance’s budget report on May 1 and tax revenues for April will confirm or deny the prospect of large-scale redemptions. If the deficit grows, the redemption mechanism will be fully activated, which, according to Hayes, will trigger a new wave of bitcoin growth.

Hayes is convinced that bitcoin will gradually break away from tech stocks and take the place of the digital equivalent of gold. Once it crosses the $ 110,000 mark, it will see rapid growth, which, as he put it, «may fall just short of $ 200,000.»