Arthur Hayes sees the US war with Iran as a favorable signal for bitcoin growth

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, published a new essay on March 2, in which he argues that the protracted US military campaign against Iran could be a catalyst for the Federal Reserve to cut rates and launch additional money supply, which would eventually push bitcoin upward.

In his work «iOS Warfare,» Hayes analyzes historical examples and shows that every large-scale US military operation in the Middle East was accompanied by monetary policy easing. He cites three precedents: the rate cuts after the 1990 Gulf War, the emergency cuts after the September 11, 2001 attacks, and the quantitative easing policy during the 2009 Afghanistan «surge.»

According to Hayes, Washington’s current strategy toward Iran fits into this longstanding pattern. He believes that the political goal of «regime change» gives the Fed the basis for new steps towards cheap money, even despite inflationary risks.

Despite the optimistic long-term outlook, Hayes advises investors to refrain from hasty actions. He emphasizes that it is worth waiting for real signals from the Fed — a rate cut or the launch of money printing — before increasing positions in bitcoin or altcoins.

At the time of the essay’s publication, bitcoin was trading at around $ 66,200, down 30% year-to-date and almost 47% from its all-time high of $ 126,000 in October 2025. The cryptocurrency market has been under pressure for the fifth month in a row, and the Fear and Greed Index remains in the «extreme fear» zone.