Arthur Hayes: Trump will crash bitcoin price to $ 70,000

Arthur Hayes, the former head of the BitMEX exchange , predicts that the price of bitcoin BTC $96,113.73 Bitcoin -0.18% Market capitalization $1.91 trillion VOL. 24 hours $1.06 billion will drop to $ 70,000−75,000. He believes that the reason will be the market’s disappointment with Donald Trump’s policies, which may not differ much from those of his predecessors. According to Hayes, the situation can only be changed by a significant expansion of liquidity from the Fed, the US Treasury, China, Japan, and other major economies, or the adoption of laws favorable to the crypto industry.

Hayes also expressed skepticism about the creation of a national bitcoin reserve (SBR) in the United States. He believes that such an initiative would be used primarily for political purposes rather than financial gain. According to him, even if Trump fulfills his promise to purchase 1 million BTC, this does not guarantee the long-term stability of the cryptocurrency market. If he fails to cope with inflation and other challenges, Democrats could regain control of Congress and change the political course in 2028.

The Polymarket platform estimates the probability of creating a bitcoin reserve in the first 100 days of Trump’s presidency at 14%, although it was previously as high as 48%. Senator Cynthia Lummis continues to promote the idea of legislating a BTC reserve at the federal level. Research by VanEck indicates that the creation of the SBR could reduce the US national debt by 35% by 2050.

Analysts at Fidelity Digital Assets believe that the adoption of bitcoin at the national level will be a powerful driver for the market in 2025. Some experts predict a sharp jump in the value of BTC after the official confirmation of the creation of a bitcoin reserve by the US authorities.