Arthur Hayes warns that job losses due to artificial intelligence could trigger a bitcoin boom

Bitcoin may signal an impending global liquidity crisis, according to Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, in his new study. He drew attention to the difference between the dynamics of the BTC price and the Nasdaq 100 index, which may indicate a hidden tightening of credit conditions.

According to Hayes, the market has traditionally viewed bitcoin as a «high-beta» tech stock, but the current lack of correlation could be an early warning of structural problems in the financial system. He called bitcoin the most sensitive asset to changes in the global supply of fiat credit.

Hayes believes that the key risk factor is the impact of artificial intelligence on the labor market. Massive layoffs among white-collar workers with high levels of consumer and mortgage debt could lead to large-scale credit losses. He estimates that if 20% of the more than 70 million U.S. knowledge workers lose their jobs, banks could face more than $ 550 billion in losses, equivalent to 13% of the industry’s capital.

Hayes predicts a «deflation first, inflation second» scenario: first, markets price in defaults and declines in risky assets, and then central banks launch large-scale liquidity support programs. He compared the possible scenario to the 2008 crisis, when the Federal Reserve was forced to resort to years of quantitative easing.

As a result, Hayes believes that bitcoin can benefit from such a cycle. The deeper the initial downturn, the more powerful the monetary policy response will be, which can push the cryptocurrency to new historical highs. He advises investors to remain liquid and avoid excessive leverage, waiting for the moment when central banks return to stimulus policies.