Bitcoin grew by 18% from February lows

Analysts of the digital asset market note that bitcoin has recovered 18% from its February lows of about $ 62,530 and briefly rose to $ 74,150 this week. At the same time, online data and derivatives market indicators suggest that this may be a temporary bearish rebound rather than the start of a new upward trend.

The key signal is the Net Realized Profit/Loss indicator, which has remained in the negative zone since early January. This means that more losses are recorded on the blockchain than profits. Analysts compare the situation with the periods before the falls in May 2022 and November 2018. Additionally, they note the «hidden bearish divergence» of the RSI in December-March.

Another argument is the behavior of short-term holders. According to HODL Waves, the share of coins in the hands of the 1-week-1-month cohort decreased from 6.20% to 4.54% between February 19 and March 5. This is seen as a sign of rebound sales rather than accumulation. The average entry price for this group is close to $ 70,000, so the range of $ 68,500-$ 71,500 looks like a natural exit zone.

In the derivatives market, open interest is about $ 24.29 billion, less than half the levels seen during the rise to the highs in July 2025. Analysts are also paying attention to the technical resistance zone of $ 74,770-$ 75,700, where about $ 2.3 billion of «negative scale» is concentrated, which can mechanically pull the price up to $ 75,000, but without new demand, the market risks stalling or reversing.

The nearest support is the range of $ 68,640-$ 70,090. If daily closes remain above $ 68,640, technical rebounds are possible. If it consolidates below this level, the next targets will be $ 67,200 and $ 65,410, and with further pressure, a return to the February low of around $ 62,520 is possible.