Bitcoin is planning to set a new record, experts named the reason

Bitcoin started October with strong growth, adding almost 9% over the week and holding above the $ 124,000 mark, despite a slight pullback from its recent all-time high. Analysts point to $ 130,000 as the next important target, as evidenced by both technical patterns and online data. Experts pay special attention to the behavior of large cryptocurrency holders, who demonstrate record confidence in further growth.

A key indicator of bullish sentiment was the net flow of bitcoin on exchanges, which reached a multi-year low. As of October 4, the 14-day moving average of net flow was -7,210 BTC, the lowest level in almost three years. A negative value means that holders are withdrawing more coins from centralized exchanges than they are depositing, which traditionally indicates an intention to hold assets rather than sell them.

The last time such figures were observed was in November 2022, shortly before BTC soared from $ 16,000 to over $ 72,000 in the following months.

The HODL Waves indicator, which tracks how long coins remain stationary on wallets, also shows positive dynamics. Over the past month, both short-term and long-term holders have increased their holdings. The group of 1−3 month holders grew from 8.75% to 9.59% of the total supply, and holders with a holding period of 2−3 years increased from 7.00% to 7.13%. While the 0.13% increase may seem insignificant, it represents tens of thousands of BTC — a significant change in the overall supply and a clear signal of renewed confidence among long-term investors.

In terms of technical analysis, the price of bitcoin recently confirmed the breakout of the inverted head and shoulders pattern on the daily chart, confidently closing above $ 122,100. This classic bullish pattern indicates a possible rise above $ 130,000 if the momentum continues. A breakout of this level will open the way to new cycle highs in the current quarter. Analysts emphasize that both groups of owners — long-term and short-term — are now showing confidence, creating a stronger foundation for sustainable growth.

However, experts warn that a drop below $ 117,900 and $ 108,400 would temporarily cancel this bullish scenario. However, online metrics continue to point to an uptrend, and the combination of technical indicators and fundamental factors creates a favorable environment for further growth of the most popular cryptocurrency. Investors are closely monitoring the dynamics of coin withdrawals from exchanges, as this indicator has historically correlated well with future price movements.