Bitcoin’s local bottom is fixed at $ 63,000

Bitcoin’s price has experienced one of the sharpest falls in recent months, down more than 11% from its peak in late January. Although the asset has technically reached a key downside target, blockchain and derivatives data suggest that the market may not be finished correcting.

After breaking through the head-and-shoulders pattern on January 29, Bitcoin confirmed a reversal and decline with a projection of $ 75,130. In early February, the price actually reached this mark, but the expected recovery turned out to be weak. Investors are not actively accumulating BTC at this level, which is evident from the volume of coins withdrawn from exchanges: they have decreased from 42,400 BTC to 14,100 BTC, a 67% drop.

An additional pressure factor is the decline in volumes in large wallets. Since February 1, addresses with a balance of 10,000−100,000 BTC have reduced their holdings by 10,000 BTC, which is approximately $ 750 million. Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) for short-term holders also indicates a «surrender zone,» but has not yet reached the level of panic recorded during the bottom in November.

The derivatives market is dominated by short leverage: according to Binance, open short positions total $ 1.91 billion, while longs are only $ 168 million. This asymmetry creates the potential for a «short squeeze» — a technical price rebound due to the closure of short positions. However, analysts warn that this is no substitute for genuine demand and does not guarantee a sustainable reversal.

In the event of a further drop, models based on the URPD (UTXO's purchase price distribution) point to support zones around $ 66,890 and $ 63,111, where part of the buying volume is concentrated. Technically, a breakout below $ 75,130 will open the way to $ 69,500, the critical «decision zone». Additional support can be expected around $ 61,840. To resume the bullish trend, Bitcoin must overcome resistance in the range of $ 79,890-$ 84,140. Until then, the market will remain in the zone of prevailing risks.