Bitwise experts name the key condition for bitcoin’s growth to $ 200,000

Andre Dragosch, head of European research at Bitwise , said that the inclusion of bitcoin BTC $116,269.00 Mezo Wrapped BTC -1.42% Market capitalization $41.88 million VOL. 24 hours $2.11 billion in pension plans in the United States could be an event that will have a greater impact on the price of the cryptocurrency than the launch of spot ETFs. According to the company’s estimates, in this case, BTC could reach $ 200,000 by the end of 2025.

The impetus for such forecasts was the decision of US President Donald Trump, who signed an executive order in early August to allow funds from 401(k) and DC retirement accounts to be invested in private equity, real estate, and virtual assets. Dragos emphasized that even a conservative allocation of 1% of the total $ 12.2 trillion could bring $ 122 billion in new capital to the crypto market.

The Bitwise survey showed that most pension plan managers are ready to advise clients to invest 2.5−3% of their portfolio in bitcoin. This means that the potential inflow of funds could reach up to $ 360 billion, which is several times more than the current sector of spot BTC-ETFs, estimated at $ 150.89 billion as of August 18, 2025.

According to the expert, the first investments from retirement accounts in bitcoin may start as early as this fall. If the US Federal Reserve cuts the rate in September, the market will receive an additional incentive for growth, which could push BTC to $ 200,000.

However, the risks remain: after the July data on the US producer price index, the likelihood of a Fed policy easing has decreased, which has already caused the crypto market to correct on August 18.