Cryptocurrency analysts have named a condition for a stable bullish trend in bitcoin

Bitcoin BTC $101,448.00 Mezo Wrapped BTC -2.30% Market capitalization $53.17 million VOL. 24 hours $2.62 billion managed to avoid a deeper collapse this week — over the past day, the crypto market’s flagship rose by 2.1% to $ 103,700 after a short-term drop to $ 98,900. This has partially stabilized the market, but analysts warn that to confirm a real recovery, the cryptocurrency needs to rise by another 12% - only then can we talk about a transition from caution to a confident bullish trend.

On the daily chart, bitcoin faces the risk of a bearish crossover between the 20-day and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMAs). If the shorter EMA falls below the longer one, it will signal a weakening of buyers. A similar situation with the crossing of the 50- and 100-day EMAs on November 4 has already led to a 10 percent drop in the price.

The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator, which reflects capital flows, has remained in the negative zone since the end of October. This indicates that large investors have not yet returned to the market, and inflows remain weak. Together with technical signals, this makes the current growth fragile.

Glassnode data shows that long-term bitcoin holders (hodlers) have not resumed accumulating even after the recent rebound. Between November 2 and 5, the network’s Hodler Net Position Change fell from -43,810 BTC to -52,250 BTC, meaning investors sold another 8,400 BTC. Historically, a significant recovery has only begun when these players start buying again.

To move to steady growth, bitcoin needs to stay above $ 103,000, consolidate above $ 105,600, and break through the key level of $ 116,500, which is about 12% higher than current values. If the price falls below $ 103,000 and closes below $ 98,900, a bearish pattern with a potential target of $ 83,000 could be triggered. Thus, bitcoin has so far avoided a fall, but its position remains unstable.