Cryptocurrency analysts named the best days for bitcoin

CoinGecko analysts have studied the relationship between the day of purchase of bitcoin and the short-term profitability of an investment. The study covered almost 13 years, from May 1, 2013, to May 8, 2026. The return was calculated based on the change in the asset’s price in a fixed number of calendar days after the purchase, and observations without data on the future price were excluded from the sample.

The main conclusion is that buying bitcoin on holidays is statistically more profitable. The average daily return on such days was 0.77%, compared to only 0.19% on ordinary days. That is, holidays brought investors almost four times higher short-term returns.

The most profitable day to buy bitcoin was January 1. The average yield on the day after the New Year was 2.01%, and the share of profitable transactions was 84.6%. Analysts attribute this to the so-called «January effect» known from traditional financial markets: after the December sell-off, some of which was driven by tax optimization, investors return to risky assets at the beginning of the new year. Other successful dates included Columbus Day (1.7%), Christmas (1.46%), and Labor Day (1.22%).

However, not all American holidays were favorable for the crypto market. The worst result was recorded on Martin Luther King Day: the average yield was -0.84%. Analysts attribute this, in particular, to the 18.65% collapse of bitcoin in January 2018, when the market was entering a bearish cycle. The US Independence Day also showed a negative average yield of minus 0.26%.

As for the difference between weekdays and weekends, it is practically absent for bitcoin: 0.21% vs. 0.22%, respectively. Among the days of the week, Monday and Wednesday showed the strongest results — 0.38% each. The only day with a negative average was Thursday: minus 0.09%. According to CoinGecko experts, the classic «weekend effects» typical of the stock market are much weaker in crypto, as bitcoin is traded around the clock.

Over the long term, the influence of the day of purchase virtually disappears. When holding the asset for a year, the average return for all days of the week fluctuated in a narrow range, from 142.15% to 144.56%. The authors of the study conclude that for long-term investors, the specific moment of market entry is not of fundamental importance.

Meanwhile, Jake Pahor, co-founder of the Crypto Super Hub platform, noted that most bitcoin investors make decisions under the influence of emotions — they ignore the strength of the trend during a fall and start buying the asset after the rate has risen.