CryptoQuant analysts predict the peak of the bull cycle by the end of the fall

An analyst at CryptoQuant under the pseudonym AxelAdlerJr said that bitcoin BTC $114,597.00 Mezo Wrapped BTC 0.57% Market capitalization $42.47 million VOL. 24 hours $1.62 billion has entered the mature phase of the bull market, and its peak may occur in October-November 2025. According to him, 504 days have passed since the last halving, which corresponds to the final stages of previous cycles.

According to the expert, in March, the Value Days Destroyed (VDD) indicator, which takes into account the volume of coins sold, rose sharply when bitcoin reached $ 70,000. However, the subsequent waves of sales around $ 98,000 and $ 117,000 were less large-scale. This indicates that long-term investors do not sell assets en masse, but do so in parts.

«Segmented sales indicate a more sustainable restructuring, largely due to institutional demand. The supply enters the market immediately after new historical highs and is quickly absorbed, leading to more extended peaks,» the analyst explained.

He added that the condition for the final growth will be the triggering of the so-called Peak Flag, when the market price of bitcoin is about 11 times higher than the realized value of the assets of long-term holders. This should be accompanied by a sharp increase in sales by experienced investors and short-term volatility.

The analyst emphasized that, unlike previous cycles, the current market is characterized by lower volatility. Previously, long-term holders sold after every significant price jump, but this time the big sales took place before the halving, and then sales are more moderate.