CryptoQuant: Bitcoin is entering a bearish period

Analytical company CryptoQuant has announced the beginning of a new bear market for bitcoin BTC $86,398.32 Mezo Wrapped BTC -2.52% Market capitalization $44.83 million VOL. 24 hours $1.2 billion , pointing to a sharp decline in demand from spot ETFs in the United States and large institutional investors. According to the company’s report, the main source of new capital in the market has actually dried up, and the activity of participants — both among private and corporate owners — is gradually declining.

Analysts noted that in 2023−2025, the growth in demand for bitcoin was largely driven by the launch of ETFs, political factors in the United States, and increased institutional participation. However, since October 2025, this trend has changed, as the dynamics of BTC purchases have fallen below the long-term average. This, according to CryptoQuant, signaled the market’s transition to a downward phase.

According to estimates, in the next three to six months, the value of bitcoin could drop to around $ 70,000, and in the event of further market weakness, even to $ 56,000, which corresponds to the so-called «realized price» of the asset. This level historically corresponded to the end of bear cycles. At the same time, the expected drawdown is projected to be the smallest among all previous market cycles — about 55% of the last historical high.

Julio Moreno, Head of Research at CryptoQuant, said that the bear market actually began in mid-November, after a large-scale wave of liquidations that took place on October 10. During this time, spot ETFs in the United States reduced their holdings by 24,000 BTC, which is in stark contrast to the active accumulation of coins a year earlier. In addition, online data shows a decline in the activity of addresses that hold between 100 and 1,000 BTC, i.e. companies and funds.

In the derivatives market, funding rates for perpetual futures have fallen to their lowest levels since December 2023, which also indicates a decrease in interest in long positions. All of this, CryptoQuant notes, indicates a gradual transition of the market to a cooling phase, which may last until the second half of 2026.