CryptoQuant: Bitcoin to drop to $ 55,000 before recovery begins

New data from the cryptocurrency market indicates a bearish cycle for bitcoin BTC $67,400.14 Mezo Wrapped BTC 0.11% Market capitalization $38.18 million VOL. 24 hours $1.07 billion . CryptoQuant CEO Kee Yong Ju said that the current dynamics are determined by the prevalence of sales pressure over capital inflows, and recovery may take several months and require a deeper correction.

The research presented by Joo emphasized a fundamental imbalance: hundreds of billions of dollars have entered the market, but total capitalization has remained stable or even declined. This means that new capital is not able to compensate for the scale of sales. According to him, historically, deep corrections required at least three months of consolidation before investment sentiment recovered.

The analyst outlined two possible scenarios. The first is a drop in price to a realized value of about $ 55,000, which is the average cost base of all bitcoin holders. The second is a prolonged consolidation in the range of $ 60,000−70,000 for several months. Both options assume that there are no prerequisites for sustainable growth at the moment.

Joo also explained that a significant portion of sales are made by institutional investors who are exiting positions due to the decline in bitcoin volatility. CME data shows a reduction in short positions, which is not an indication of optimism but of capital outflow. In addition, aggressive sales patterns of large volumes in short periods of time have been recorded, which may mean forced liquidations or intentional manipulation.

The situation is even worse in the altcoin market. Despite active trading volumes, fresh investments have been made only in certain tokens with the prospect of ETFs. The total capitalization of altcoins did not exceed previous highs, which indicates the rotation of funds among existing participants rather than market expansion. According to Ju, it will take much longer to restore investor confidence in this segment.