Mike McGlone: Bitcoin will fall below $ 50,000 by Christmas

Mike McGlone, senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, has warned that bitcoin BTC $84,900.41 Mezo Wrapped BTC -5.88% Market capitalization $39.9 million VOL. 24 hours $2.11 billion could experience the so-called «Christmas crash» and fall to $ 50,000 as early as December. In his opinion, a number of macroeconomic factors create conditions for a further decline in the price of the main cryptocurrency, despite its attempts to recover from the recent sell-off.

The analyst points out that bitcoin continues to weaken compared to gold, which is updating its historical highs. The flow of capital into «safe-haven assets» is shifting the balance in favor of the precious metal, while bitcoin is losing momentum, which increases the risk of a return to the long-term support at $ 50,000. If the trend continues, he does not rule out an even deeper correction.

Among the risk factors, McGlone mentions a decrease in stock market volatility and a gradual shift of investors to «safe» assets. According to him, despite the external stability of the stock exchanges, the stock market may repeat the decline in cryptocurrencies, as it already happened in 2018, 2020, and 2022, when the S&P 500 followed the fall of bitcoin after breaking through the 50-week moving average.

Additional pressure is created by the growing number of competitive cryptocurrencies, which erodes bitcoin’s market share. Combined with a decline in liquidity, this creates conditions similar to previous «deflationary» periods when the price of BTC fell sharply.

At the time of publication, bitcoin was trading at around $ 91,400, up 1% on the day, but the technical picture remains bearish: the 50-day SMA is at $ 103,000 and the 200-day SMA is around $ 104,400, meaning that the price is significantly below key trend lines. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 40.5, indicating weakened demand and a sellers' advantage in the market.