Quantum clock determines the exact date when bitcoin encryption will be broken

A new online tool, Quantum Doomsday Clock , predicts that quantum computers will be able to crack the Bitcoin cryptographic system BTC $88,424.05 Mezo Wrapped BTC 1.66% Market capitalization $43.63 million VOL. 24 hours $2.16 billion as early as March 8, 2028. As of November 2025, the «clock» shows two years and four months until a quantum computer is able to execute the Shor’s algorithm to crack the ECDSA secp256k1 standard, the basis of Bitcoin and most other cryptocurrencies' security.

The tool was developed by cryptographer Richard Karbek and entrepreneur Colton Dillion as part of the Postquant Labs and Hadamard Gate Inc. project. According to their estimates, about 1,673 logical qubits will be enough to crack Bitcoin’s public keys. The model is based on current research and roadmaps for the development of quantum technologies from IBM, Google, and other companies.

If the prediction comes true, all Bitcoin addresses that have disclosed public keys, including old P2PKs and reused P2PKHs, will become vulnerable. On the other hand, modern Taproot and SegWit addresses will remain safer because they only publish key hashes, not the keys themselves.

There is no consensus among experts on the accuracy of the forecast. Some experts believe that 2028 is too early, but organizations such as NIST and the Global Risk Institute define a «quantum threat window» between 2028 and 2035. According to the Global Risk Institute’s 2024 data, the probability of the threat is estimated at 50% by 2039, and Naoris Protocol CEO David Carvalho suggests that the danger will become real by 2030.

Blockstream CEO Adam Beck takes a more conservative stance: he does not expect a serious threat to cryptography for at least two decades, although he recognizes the possibility of technological breakthroughs. Meanwhile, IBM plans to create the first error-correcting quantum computer, Quantum Starling, by 2029, and Google has already reached the 105-qubit mark with the Willow chip, which only increases the relevance of the «quantum countdown.»