Standard Chartered says that Ethereum value will fall by 60%

Analysts at Standard Chartered have lowered their forecast for the price of Ethereum ETH $1,808.44 Bridged Ether (StarkGate) 1.46% Market capitalization $0.16 billion VOL. 24 hours $1.05 billion in 2025 from $ 10,000 to $ 4,000. The main reason for this revision was the growing role of the Layer 2 equation, in particular the Base network, which, according to experts, «took away» about $ 50 billion in market capitalization from the main Ethereum network.

Geoffrey Kendrick, Chief Digital Asset Analyst at Standard Chartered, notes that Ethereum itself has «reduced its value» by creating Layer 2 networks that intercept a significant share of fees. This leads to a decrease in the main network’s revenue and, consequently, a drop in the price of ETH.

He proposes a solution in the form of a «surplus profits tax» for Layer 2 projects, similar to the way some governments impose additional fees on foreign mining companies. However, Kendrick admits that such a scenario is unlikely, leaving Ethereum’s future uncertain.

Among other factors that have weakened ETH’s position, the analyst cites the transition to Proof-of-Stake in 2022, which deprived Ethereum of its uniqueness among blockchains supporting smart contracts, as well as the latest Dencun update, which further strengthened Layer 2.

Despite the short-term negativity, Kendrick still expects ETH to grow in the long term, predicting that it will reach $ 7,500 in 2028−2029. However, he warns that without a change in the economic model, Ethereum will continue to lag behind bitcoin, and the ETH/BTC ratio could fall to 2017 levels.