Tephra Digital analysts predict bitcoin’s growth to $ 185,000

Experts at investment company Tephra Digital predict that the bitcoin rate BTC $111,784.00 Mezo Wrapped BTC 0.58% Market capitalization $41.38 million VOL. 24 hours $0.93 billion could rise to $ 167,000−185,000 by the end of 2025 or in the first half of 2026. They came to this conclusion based on the correlation between BTC, gold, and the M2 money supply.

According to the analysis, the correlation between bitcoin and M2 (with a lag of 102 days) indicates a potential increase of up to $ 167,000, and the correlation with gold (with a lag of 200 days) — up to $ 185,000. An increase in M2 usually means an increase in liquidity in the economy, which investors often channel into risky assets, including cryptocurrencies.

Tephra Digital notes that the correlation between BTC and gold in 2025 remained mostly positive, ranging from 0.1 to 0.25, and since July it has been consistently positive. If this trend continues, and the price of gold continues to rise, bitcoin may repeat this movement.

An additional growth factor may be the expected interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve. According to CME, the probability of monetary policy easing in September is 99.7%, which can stimulate M2 and, consequently, the price of BTC.

Earlier, the WisdomTree report noted that the share of bitcoin in the pool of hard assets reached 8%, and in case of inflationary pressure, the price of cryptocurrency could rise to $ 250,000 and gold to $ 4,000. At the same time, other analysts warn of the risk of a short-term market correction as early as September.