Trading volumes on cryptocurrency forecasting platforms exceeded $ 20 billion in a month

In 2026, the cryptocurrency forecasting market is showing explosive growth: in January, its monthly trading volume exceeded $ 20 billion. According to TRM Labs, at the beginning of 2025, this figure was only $ 1.2 billion. At the same time, the number of unique wallets interacting with the platforms on a monthly basis has increased to 840 thousand.

Analysts emphasize that the growth was driven not only by large bets from experienced traders but also by the rapid expansion of the audience. TRM Labs analyzed the activity of Polymarket, LIMITLESS, Opinion Market, and predict. fun users. The number of wallets almost tripled in the six months to February 2026.

The main drivers of the market were geopolitics, macroeconomics, and politics. For example, in October 2025, the largest volume on Polymarket was generated by bets on the New York mayoral election — over $ 150 million. Markets related to the Super Bowl, the Fed’s rate decision, and the price of bitcoin also attracted high interest.

In February 2026, record volumes were generated by contracts related to Iran and the United States. The largest geopolitical market in Polymarket’s history was the contract «Will the US strike Iran by Feb 28, 2026?», which raised $ 73 million. In total, 23 sub-markets on this topic yielded more than $ 252.7 million. on February 28, the exchange set a new daily record of $ 425 million, almost entirely thanks to Iranian markets.

TRM Labs also identified several types of participants. The most active traders are those with 11−1000 trades, while high-frequency market makers with more than 10,000 trades stand out. The analysts also recorded clusters of potentially coordinated activity that coincided with major geopolitical events, including the recent US air strikes on Iran.