Unrealized gains on bitcoin reached a record 99%

The price of bitcoin BTC $108,528.37 Bitcoin -1.25% Market capitalization $2.16 trillion VOL. 24 hours $1.82 billion has risen by 50% from April’s lows and reached an all-time high of about $ 112,000 on May 23. Amid this growth, the key online indicator has approached a critical point, which traditionally signals an overheating market. The point is that 99% of unnecessary transaction exits (UTXO) are now in the profit zone.

UTXOs are units of uncompleted transactions that indicate the remaining bitcoin in the network that has not yet been spent in subsequent transactions. If almost all such balances have a positive value, this usually indicates a general expectation of further growth. However, historically, such situations have preceded both new peaks and sharp declines.

CryptoQuant analysts warn that despite the strong signal, the current macroeconomic uncertainty — in particular, the expectation of new political policies in the United States — does not allow us to talk about real euphoria in the market. If the indicator starts to decline, it could trigger a chain reaction of profit-taking among early investors and force newcomers to sell assets at a loss.

In turn, the Glassnode team is seeing signs of short-term demand exhaustion. Over the past two weeks, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped by 25%, and net demand on the spot market has also fallen. At the same time, open positions and funding rates have increased, indicating increased speculative activity, albeit with increased selling pressure.

Given the decline in address activity and the changing structure of short- and long-term holders, the market looks unstable overall. A potential decline in UTXO’s yield may indicate a change in the trend and increased investor caution in the near future.