Wells Fargo: Bitcoin will grow in the second quarter of 2025

Analysts predict that bitcoin BTC $94,348.99 Bitcoin -0.45% Market capitalization $1.87 trillion VOL. 24 hours $0.89 billion may start growing in the second quarter of 2025 if two key macroeconomic correlations remain. This is reported by CNBC with reference to Wells Fargo analyst Christopher Harvey.

According to him, the value of bitcoin has a positive correlation with the money supply (M2) and a negative correlation with the dollar index (DXY). The current decline in the cryptocurrency is explained by the strengthening of the dollar in the fourth quarter of 2024. However, after the peak on January 13, 2025, the DXY began to weaken, which could create conditions for a market recovery.

Compass Point analyst Ed Engel also drew attention to these factors. He noted that the global M2 aggregator peaked in September 2024, after which liquidity declined, but began to recover in early 2025. If bitcoin maintains its correlation with M2, this will mean another decline in March before a significant rally in the second quarter.

Wolfe Research experts are less optimistic. They point to the uncertainty of cryptocurrency market regulation and macroeconomic risks, including trade wars. In their opinion, bitcoin is unlikely to overcome the $ 90,000 level in the near term and will remain in a state of «persistent weakness.»

Earlier it was reported that options traders bet $ 550 million on BTC’s decline to $ 70,000 in March. Some analysts allow for a drop to this level before a possible recovery.