Bitwise: bitcoin will reach $ 200,000 this year

In December 2024, analysts at cryptocurrency investment company Bitwise made a high-profile forecast: in 2025, bitcoin BTC $84,008.79 Bitcoin -0.53% Market capitalization $1.67 trillion VOL. 24 hours $0.93 billion will reach $ 200,000. They explained their optimism by expecting large-scale purchases of the digital asset by corporations and governments, the positive impact of exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and the consequences of the halving that took place in 2024.

However, the reality so far diverges from these predictions. On March 10, the price of bitcoin fell to $ 78,500, the lowest level since November 2024. The reason was the ambiguous reaction of the market to the executive order of US President Donald Trump on the creation of the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. The document envisages the use of coins seized by federal agencies, but does not mention additional purchases of BTC by the state. This contradicts Bitwise’s forecast of growing demand from government agencies.

The situation with Bitcoin ETFs also does not look too optimistic. According to SoSoValue, since February 2025, these financial instruments have lost $ 5 billion due to capital outflows. In addition, the overall economic situation in the United States remains tense: the stock market has suffered significant losses amid fears of a possible recession, and the president’s comments have only increased uncertainty.

The crypto market is closely linked to traditional financial markets, so their decline has had a negative impact on the BTC rate. At the time of publication, bitcoin was trading just below $ 81,000, according to the Kraken exchange.

However, 2025 has only just begun. Given the high volatility of the cryptocurrency market, it is still too early to draw any final conclusions. The coming months may bring unexpected changes in the dynamics of bitcoin, so investors should closely monitor the situation.