XWIN Research: Bitcoin risks falling to $ 60,000

Analysts at XWIN Research have warned that the price of bitcoin BTC $82,656.85 Mezo Wrapped BTC -6.35% Market capitalization $41.26 million VOL. 24 hours $6.84 billion could fall to $ 60,000 if the US Federal Reserve decides not to cut its key rate in December. According to their estimates, if the tight monetary policy is maintained, the first cryptocurrency may fluctuate between $ 60,000 and $ 80,000 by the end of the year.

Experts called the upcoming Fed meeting one of the most uncertain in recent years. Due to the temporary shutdown of the US government (the «shutdown»), the regulator did not receive complete data on the labor market, which makes it difficult to make decisions on monetary policy. Market participants, in turn, have begun to doubt the likelihood of a rate cut, and there is no consensus among Fed members.

According to analysts, keeping the rate unchanged will mean less liquidity in the financial markets and a weakening of interest in risky assets, including cryptocurrencies. During periods of tight monetary policy, investors are usually less willing to use leverage, which reduces trading activity.

At the same time, analysts emphasize that crypto exchanges have accumulated record reserves of $ 72 billion in stablecoins. A similar situation has already been observed before all the significant price spikes in 2025, which may indicate the presence of pent-up demand. This factor, according to experts, can limit the depth of the potential market decline.

Additionally, it is noted that Ethereum ETH $2,697.38 Bridged Ether (StarkGate) -6.86% Market capitalization $68.48 million VOL. 24 hours $3.95 billion has tested a key support level around $ 2800, which historically has often been the bottom of market cycles. At the time of publication, ETH is trading around $ 3000. This may indicate an attempt by the market to stabilize before a possible recovery if the macroeconomic situation does not deteriorate.