Cryptocurrency analyst says bitcoin will never fall below $ 80,000

After a sharp decline, which was one of the deepest since the end of 2022, bitcoin BTC $87,127.52 Mezo Wrapped BTC 1.45% Market capitalization $42.99 million VOL. 24 hours $1.96 billion is showing signs of stabilization again. It is currently trading around $ 87,928, up 1.55% from the previous day. Despite the persistence of bearish sentiment, analysts believe that the worst is over.

An analyst under the pseudonym Astronomer said that the probability of the price closing below $ 80,000 again is 91%. He based his forecast on historical capitulation patterns, which often signaled a trend reversal. According to him, the current situation is in line with typical market behavior after large-scale sales.

The key indicator of the pattern is three consecutive weekly red candlesticks with high volumes that precede the recovery. An analysis of past cycles has shown that in 8 out of 11 cases, after such signals, the market moved to a prolonged growth, which ended with new historical highs. On this basis, the analyst estimates the probability of reaching $ 112,000 at 99%, and $ 118,000 at 91%. The overall probability of the bullish trend continuing is about 75%.

Astronomer emphasized that the main risk now is not technical factors but investor behavior. Massive expectations of a further fall or the requirement to «wait for the trend to be confirmed» often indicate the formation of a market bottom. According to him, those who sell assets at such stages are later forced to buy them at a much higher price.

He also drew attention to the ratio of the value of the bitcoin network to the volume of transactions, which dropped to -1.6, indicating a temporary undervaluation of the asset. At the same time, another trader known as Darkfost warned against using leverage: despite the potential for growth, volatility remains high, and short-term deviations can lead to the liquidation of risky positions.