Galaxy Digital: Bitcoin may test $ 56,000 level

Bitcoin BTC $77,197.12 Mezo Wrapped BTC 0.20% Market capitalization $44.08 million VOL. 24 hours $1.98 billion may continue to fall in the coming weeks, according to Alex Thorne, head of research at Galaxy Digital. In his research note, he predicts that the price will drop to $ 70,000 and then test the realized price level of $ 56,000, which reflects the average value of all BTC coins in circulation.

The analyst emphasizes that bitcoin does not demonstrate the behavior of an asset that serves as a hedge against depreciation, such as gold or silver. Despite a short-term increase of 3% and trading near $ 78,500 after rebounding from a nine-month low, the cryptocurrency remains 39% below its historical high of over $ 126,000 recorded in October 2025.

Historically, the level of the realized price has become a support point during bear markets. Thorne notes that bitcoin has also previously found support near the 200-week moving average, which is currently at $ 58,000, after losing support at the 50-week average in November.

Another signal is the decline in the activity of long-term BTC holders. Although some of them are holding their positions in anticipation of better prices, the decline in sales may indicate that the market bottom is approaching. At the same time, it creates additional resistance to a quick recovery.

Regarding regulatory factors, Thorne believes that the draft law on the structure of the crypto market in the United States is unlikely to become a catalyst for the growth of bitcoin’s value. Due to the lack of bipartisan support in the Senate and the delay in the consideration of the document, it is not bitcoin but altcoins that may benefit the most from potential changes.