Bernstein: bitcoin has fallen by 50% from its maximum

Bitcoin has fallen sharply by almost 50% from its all-time high, but Wall Street analysts have not revised their long-term forecasts. Research firm Bernstein has confirmed its target price of $ 150,000, calling the current downturn the «weakest bearish scenario» in the history of the cryptocurrency and emphasizing that it is not fundamental.

According to Bernstein, the decline is driven mainly by investor sentiment and macroeconomic pressures rather than market infrastructure issues. The report notes that exchanges and custodians are operating steadily, and spot ETFs on BTC recorded only about 7% of net outflows, despite a significant price drop.

The company explains the weaker performance of bitcoin compared to gold by the fact that investors still perceive it as a risky asset. In the context of high rates and limited liquidity, capital is flowing into traditional safe havens and artificial intelligence-related stocks. At the same time, Bernstein dismissed fears that investments in AI will pull funds away from the crypto market, as well as fears about quantum computing, calling them a distant prospect.

Analysts also commented on the risks for large corporate BTC holders and miners. They emphasized that companies use long-term financial structures, which reduces the likelihood of forced sales. At the same time, it is recognized that a prolonged price below the cost of mining can put pressure on miners and increase short-term volatility.

Bernstein expects that with the easing of financial restrictions, bitcoin will return to growth and could reach $ 150,000 by 2026. At the same time, the market remains cautious: some traders allow for a further drop to levels below $ 50,000. After peaking at over $ 126,000 in early October, bitcoin pulled back and was trading around $ 69,400 at the time of publication, balancing between macroeconomic pressure and long-term institutional optimism.