10x Research: bitcoin may fail the $ 55,000 level

Bitcoin is at a critical juncture: after several weeks of sideways movement, the price of the flagship crypto market BTC $67,247.15 Mezo Wrapped BTC -3.44% Market capitalization $37.94 million VOL. 24 hours $1.49 billion is struggling to hold support at around $ 65,000. The optimism after the launch of spot ETFs has disappeared, and the market is facing steady capital outflows and a tough macroeconomic environment. Analysts call the situation a test of strength for the current bull cycle.

According to Farside Investors, spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States recorded more than $ 1 billion in net outflows in just three days. This creates constant selling pressure, as ETFs were the main driver of growth in the first quarter. If the trend continues, models predict a possible decline to the $ 55,000-$ 58,000 range.

The technical picture also looks tense. Bitcoin is trading below its 50-day moving average, which is considered a bearish signal. The nearest support is located at $ 64,500, and a breakout of this level could open the way to the 100-day average near $ 60,000. According to 10x Research, a loss of this level could trigger a deeper correction to $ 52,000-$ 55,000.

Analysts outline several scenarios. In the bearish scenario, a daily close below $ 64,000 will confirm the downtrend with a target of around $ 58,000, and a large-scale wave of risk aversion could bring the price down to $ 55,000 or lower. The baseline scenario assumes consolidation in the range of $ 64,000-$ 67,000. To cancel the negative forecast, Bitcoin should return above $ 68,000 and show stable inflows into ETFs.

Amid stagnation, part of the capital flows into second-tier infrastructure solutions. Among them is the Bitcoin Hyper ($HYPER) project, which is positioned as the first Bitcoin Layer 2 with Solana Virtual Machine integration. The pre-sale has already raised $ 31.3 million, and the largest transaction for $ 500,000 was recorded on January 15, 2026. At the same time, experts emphasize the high risks: presales remain speculative, competition among L2 projects is growing, and regulatory and technical challenges remain.