Cryptocurrency traders record profits of 90% due to the fall of bitcoin

Bitcoin bounced back by almost 9% between February 12 and 15, which could have given the impression that the correction was over. However, new signals suggest a growing risk of a further drop: the recovery is weakening, and data on leverage, momentum, and online earnings indicate that the rebound has increased the likelihood of a crash rather than relieved tensions.

Source: Santiment

Amid the price rise, futures traders actively increased their bets on growth. The total open interest rose from $ 19.59 billion to $ 21.47 billion, an increase of $ 1.88 billion or about 9.6% between February 13 and 15. Financing rates turned sharply positive and reached 0.34%, which means that longs are paying shorts.

The combination of rising open interest and positive funding rates is interpreted as positioning the market for a stronger recovery. At the same time, the rebound occurred within a bear flag pattern, which is a slow rise after a sharp fall within a downward structure. This formation often becomes a pause before a new wave of decline.

An additional signal was a hidden bearish divergence on the 12-hour chart between February 6 and 15. During this time, the price showed a lower high, while the RSI formed a higher high. This combination is called a hidden bearish divergence: it indicates a temporary increase in buyer momentum amid general trend weakness and the return of control to sellers. Shortly after the signal appeared, a pullback began.

A sharp rise in online profits was another warning. Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) rose from 0.11 on February 5 to 0.21 on February 14, an increase of about 90%. This means that many bitcoin holders are once again making paper profits, which increases the risk of fixing. The last time NUPL was at similar levels, on February 4, bitcoin was trading at around $ 73,000, and within one day it dropped to around $ 62,800, a drop of almost 14%.