Analyst names conditions for bitcoin’s 15-fold growth

Matt Hogan, investment director of crypto asset management company Bitwise, said that bitcoin could reach $ 1 million if it takes a significant share of the global value preservation market. Today, this market is shared by gold, government bonds, and real estate.

According to Howan’s estimates, the global value preservation market, where investors invest to protect against inflation and economic shocks, is currently estimated at about $ 40 trillion. Gold holds the dominant position with a volume of about 38 trillion. Bitcoin currently occupies only 4% of this market.

The Bitwise executive pointed out that in 2004, when the first gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) appeared, the capitalization of the value preservation market was approximately $ 2.5 trillion. Since then, it has grown by an average of 12.5−13% per year, driven by rising government debt, geopolitical instability, and loose monetary policy. If this pace continues until 2035, the total market size could approach $ 121 trillion.

In such a scenario, it would be enough for bitcoin to take 15 to 17% of this market for the price of the first cryptocurrency to reach $ 1 million. Hogan considers this forecast to be rather conservative: if bitcoin’s share were about 30%, its capitalization could approach $ 2 million per coin.

To support his words, the analyst cites recent trends. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs attracted about $ 60 billion in net investment from their launch in January 2024 to October 2025. Despite a subsequent price drop of about 50%, outflows from ETFs amounted to less than $ 10 billion, with institutional investors showing increased resilience. Among the major players that have already added bitcoin to their portfolios, Howan cites the Harvard endowment and the Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund.

The $ 1 million forecast means a price increase of about 14−15 times from current levels. Howan describes it not as a bold bet, but as the result of a simple extrapolation of trends already observed: the continued growth of the value storage market and the gradual increase in bitcoin’s share of it over the next decade.