Cryptocurrency bitcoin fell below $ 77 thousand

Bitcoin dropped to a three-week low over the weekend, when a sharp rise in US government bond yields triggered a large-scale outflow of funds from bitcoin ETFs and more than $ 672 million in liquidations in the cryptocurrency markets. According to CoinGecko, as of the time of publication, BTC was trading at $ 76,770, having lost about 2% per day.

On Sunday evening, the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds reached 4.63%, the highest since February 2025. This is 70 basis points higher than the level at the beginning of the Iranian war and four basis points higher than the level that forced President Trump to announce a 90-day pause in the introduction of tariffs in April 2025. Mortgage rates in the United States are close to 7%, and the probability of a key policy rate cut this year has fallen to 2%. Analysts at The Kobeissi Letter describe the situation unequivocally: «The US bond market is collapsing in real time.»

Pressure on the crypto market is being transmitted through increasingly institutional channels, explains Diego Martin, CEO of Yellow Capital. «Geopolitical shocks no longer hit crypto directly as they used to. They hit Treasury yields — and risk appetite — and ETF flows — and then bitcoin. The transmission mechanism is now institutional,» he told Decrypt.

U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs recorded the largest weekly outflows since late January. According to SoSoValue, net outflows amounted to $ 1 billion in the week ending May 15, compared to $ 622.75 million in net inflows a week earlier. The last time a similar figure was observed was the week of January 30, when $ 1.49 billion left the funds. Alex Thorne, head of research at Galaxy, announced the record outflows on Twitter.

Users of the forecasting marketplace Myriad (owned by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan) have revised their optimism: now only 74% of participants believe that the next move of bitcoin will be a rally to $ 84,000, down from 89% on Thursday. The total volume of liquidations on the crypto market exceeded $ 672 million, according to CoinGlass.

The key level to watch is $ 77,000, Martin emphasizes. «If this mark is broken amid increased open interest in perpetual swaps, the math of deleveraging becomes extremely uncomfortable, and a retest of $ 70,000 or lower becomes a realistic scenario rather than a tail risk. ETF flow data over the next 48 hours will give us a clear answer,» he added.