Crypto Market in a State of Extreme Fear: Bitcoin Plummets to a Two-Year Low

The cryptocurrency market is starting the second week of July in a difficult position. Bitcoin is trading around $ 61,749, which is 2.89% below its weekly opening price of $ 63,587. Just a few days ago, the coin dropped to $ 58,035—its lowest level in 21 months—before rebounding, though it was unable to sustain the momentum.

The main focus of the week for Bitcoin was the $ 64,000-$ 65,000 range: that’s where the bulls had been trying to break through since early June. The weekly candle barely touched this level before pulling back. On the Myriad prediction market, developed by Decrypt’s parent company, Dastan, traders estimate the probability that Bitcoin will reach $ 55,000 before hitting $ 84,000 at 72.3%. Sentiment among market participants shifted on June 2—until then, «smart money» had been leaning toward a bullish scenario.

Technical indicators confirm the bears' advantage. The ADX (Average Directional Index) at 30.7 points to an active and strong downtrend. The RSI has settled at 36.8—close to the oversold zone (below 30)—but the threshold has not yet been breached. However, the «golden cross» on Bitcoin’s weekly chart technically remains intact: the 50-week EMA is still above the 200-week EMA. However, the gap between them is rapidly narrowing, and if a reverse crossover—a «death cross"—occurs, it will serve as a structural signal, following which most previous cycles have been followed by a deeper market correction.

Fundamental factors are on the bulls' side. After a 10-day outflow totaling $ 2.7 billion, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a one-day inflow of $ 221.7 million on July 2 and have attracted approximately $ 510 million overall since then. Data from Glassnode shows that long-term Bitcoin holders have returned to accumulation after a prolonged period of distribution. The Fear and Greed Index at 23 («extreme fear») is a classic contrarian signal, though not a guarantee of a reversal.

The picture is even clearer for Ethereum. The coin is trading at $ 1,729.7, down 3.06% for the week. But the key development is not the price itself, but the confirmation of a weekly death cross: the 50-week EMA has fallen below the 200-week EMA for the first time in years. On the daily chart, Ethereum has been in a death cross since November 2025, when the coin peaked near $ 4,100 and began a protracted decline. Now, this bearish pattern has extended to the weekly timeframe—and this is no longer a short-term anomaly, but a sign of a market phase shift.

Traders on Myriad estimate a 72% probability that Ethereum will fall to $ 1,500 before recovering to $ 3,000. These odds reversed back in May, and since then, the gap between the two scenarios has only widened. Technically, the price is «pinned» to the Fibonacci level at $ 1,731.8, and the next significant support level below that is precisely the $ 1,500 mark. Ethereum’s ADX at 26.5 with a bearish bias confirms that the trend is active and has real momentum.

The broader crypto market is also under pressure. The total market capitalization of altcoins, excluding BTC and ETH, has fallen by 30% since January. Crypto IPOs— Gemini, Bullish, and BitGo—plummeted after their debuts. Citi lowered its 12-month forecast for Bitcoin to $ 82,000, and the bank’s bearish scenario calls for $ 53,000. Nevertheless, each of Bitcoin’s four major bear cycles has ended with a similar pattern—extreme fear, a shakeout, and yet another «obvious» short that turned out to be a trap.