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Mike McGlone, senior commodities strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, has warned of a possible 90% drop in bitcoin BTC $77,195.70 Bitcoin -1.87% Market capitalization $1.55 trillion VOL. 24 hours $1.09 billion to $ 10,000. He said this in an interview with David Lin Report, emphasizing that the current growth to $ 100,000 in December 2024 was more a sign of market overheating than long-term strength.
According to the analyst, the emotional euphoria of investors is a classic signal for «peak selling.» He pointed out that after breaking through the psychological mark of $ 100,000, gold added about 30%, while BTC managed to rise by only 8%. In addition, bitcoin shows a close correlation with the S&P 500 index (0.6 over the past 48 months), which indicates that it is turning into a risky asset that moves in sync with the stock market.
McGlone also noted that volatility has changed: in August 2024, the VIX index dropped to a low of 14.2, simultaneously with new highs for BTC. At the end of the month, volatility increased again, which may signal a change in market sentiment. In this scenario, the expert believes that gold has every chance of outperforming bitcoin.
As for the forecasts of $ 1 million per BTC, the strategist categorically rejected this idea. He recalled that the jump from $ 10,000 to $ 100,000 occurred in the face of extreme pessimism, which created the basis for a long rally. Now, with the market overloaded with long positions and a high level of speculative demand, there are no grounds for a new exponential growth.
Thus, according to Bloomberg Intelligence, bitcoin is now vulnerable not to another rally but to a deep correction that could wipe out most of its previous gains.