Scientists calculate the date when a quantum computer will be able to hack bitcoin

According to a pessimistic forecast by Project Eleven analysts, quantum computers could become a real threat to Bitcoin as early as 2030. The conservative scenario pushes this date back to 2042, but in both cases, the entire cryptocurrency infrastructure is fundamentally vulnerable.

Researchers note that the crypto market is much less secure than the traditional financial system. Banks regularly update their encryption keys and have mechanisms to restore access, while crypto wallet owners keep their assets at the same address for years, effectively leaving the public key exposed in the blockchain.

Analysts have described several possible quantum attack vectors. The most likely is the hacking of Bitcoin and Ethereum public keys using the Shor algorithm, which will allow to recover the private key and gain full access to funds. Particularly vulnerable are old and inactive addresses whose public keys are already recorded in the blockchain. Other threats include digital signature forgery and attacks on multi-signature wallets.

The study also examines the «collect now, use later» model. Attackers can already accumulate public data and digital signatures to use them when sufficiently powerful quantum machines become available. Of particular concern are stablecoins: the administrative keys of USDT and USDC contracts may become one of the main targets of future attacks. «Access to such keys can jeopardize the entire system, not just the balance of a single address,» Project Eleven warns.

The researchers compare the development of quantum technologies to the boom in artificial intelligence: long-term gradual progress can at some point turn into a sharp technological leap with little or no prior signals to the market. According to analysts, the main problem is no longer in basic science, but in the scaling of quantum systems and their practical implementation.

Meanwhile, an independent researcher Giancarlo Lelli has already cracked the 15-bit elliptic curve key using a publicly available quantum computer. The elliptic curve is the mathematical basis of digital signature schemes that ensure the security of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and most other blockchain networks.